Red Dog Strategy
The house edge in Red Dog poker is 2.8% and there is very little strategy that a player can employ. The only real option a player can control is whether to place an additional bet before the turn of the third card. The simple mathematical strategy to play is not to place an additional wager if the spread is below seven as it has a negative expectation. However betting if the spread is over spread seven is a good idea as a player can gain a small advantage. Following this system will not make you rich, as it involves only the 1/1 even money part of the game, but it is the best opportunity to show a short term profit.If the two cards maintain a spread (they are not equal or consecutive) the player is allowed to choose to either ‘raise’ or not raise. To raise means to double your initial bet. This is the only opportunity to alter your bet in red dog, and as a rule it’s the most important aspect of a good strategy.
The spread is equal to the number of cards that exist between the two cards dealt, not including them. A 4 and a 7 have a spread of 2. A 9 and a King have a spread of 3. When the third card is dealt, if it lands between the initial two cards (within the spread) the player wins. Standard red dog rules state that a 1 card spread pays 5 to 1, a spread of 2 pays at 4 to 1, a spread of 3 pays at 2 to 1, and every larger spread pays even money.
Your best red-dog strategy is to raise on spreads of seven or more. As you can see from the following table, the player holds the statistical edge for any spread of seven or more. Larger payouts, while available for bets on lower spreads, maintain a house edge of over 20% and do not represent a good playing strategy.
| Expected Gain By Raising | |||
| Spread | Pays | Probability of winning | Player’s Edge |
| 1 | 5 | 0.077419 | -0.535484 |
| 2 | 4 | 0.154839 | -0.225806 |
| 3 | 2 | 0.232258 | -0.303226 |
| 4 | 1 | 0.309677 | -0.380645 |
| 5 | 1 | 0.387097 | -0.225806 |
| 6 | 1 | 0.464516 | -0.070968 |
| 7 | 1 | 0.541935 | 0.083871 |
| 8 | 1 | 0.619355 | 0.238710 |
| 9 | 1 | 0.696774 | 0.393548 |
| 10 | 1 | 0.774194 | 0.548387 |
| 11 | 1 | 0.851613 | 0.703226 |